ETF Price Suppression Mechanics

I've got a response up to Andrew Maguire's TF Metals Report article on the corporate blog "explaining" how bullion banks use ETFs to suppress the prices of gold and silver.

I wasn't planning on it turning into a 5200 word, 12 page article, but so many memes to set straight (do ETFs have the gold, ETF market making, share borrowing, 100:1 fractional reserve bullion banking) plus Andrew really didn't explain the "mechanics" very well.

I suspect Andrew expropriated Victor's idea about the ETFs being used as a source of metal, far too many similarities I think (eg reference to "inventory financing" and the selling and buying GLD versus unallocated strategies). Andrew really got himself into a knot however in explaining these.

I've had it on my to-do list to address Victor's post in detail, and I have sort of done that with this Andrew response, but it does not address Victor's inventory changes and "inventory strategy", for which I need time to analyse the numbers in detail myself.

I look forward to Victor rebutting my comments, which will be funny because he'll be supporting Andrew at the same time in a way.

One point I would make is that Andrew's post was originally written for TF's "Army" members. Ignoring the factual errors, the best that can be said is it was written in a slapdash way, stream of consciousness style, without much effort in writing simply and clearly. I would have thought paying members deserve better.

I was a bit suspicious when Andrew "arrived" out of nowhere with his evidence and then surprise, he shortly thereafter had a service to sell at http://www.coghlancapital.com/. Not supplying his CV also doesn't help (but FYI he has his own Wikipedia page). I also don't buy TF's explanation that Andrew "doesn't talk to ANYONE because of the ongoing CFTC investigation and the current silver manipulation civil lawsuit" - releasing a CV isn't going to be a problem in that respect. Jeff Christian has made a big deal about the CV, so why not bury him now on that matter?

Anyway, this article by Andrew has just got me asking more questions about him. This may seem like small stuff, but:

1. Andrew's use of "spot index" - this is not how London bullion traders talk (and I checked with a bullion bank contact to make sure and they said that phrase is not used).
2. Getting the number of GLD's APs massively wrong.
3. Borrowing shares "from the ETF".
4. "Allocated at the fix."

These are just not mistakes someone with deep knowledge of the bullion market would make. I note that his Coghlin website About section says "the last 19 years of which have been as a metals specialist" - doesn't say "precious metals specialist". My best guess at this time is he is a trader of base metals who made the switch to precious metals as that is the hot market and doesn't want to release his CV because it is hard to get people to pay you for precious metal trading advice if you can't demonstrate experience in that market.

Hey, this speculating without any facts and making stuff up is fun and easy. I should do more of it, everyone is doing it you know.

Regular Forum Archives 1998-2001

Lip Inventory 2: Reds

I've done the pinks here and now it's my red lipsticks collection turn. I always used to be scared of wearing red lips out but now I've gotten used to it, depending on what I'm wearing on the rest of my face. Please to dear god tell me you can see the differences & finishes in these lipsticks, I know some are very similar, though. & again please ignore the messy application, as you probably know red lipstick is hard to wear without applying lip liner & using a brush first.

 L-R Nyx Round Lipstick in Eros, Avon Color Rich Mega Impact in Really Rosy, Maybelline Color Sensational in Are You Red-dy, Revlon Matte Lipstick in 005 Strawberry Suede, Innoxa Ultra Lips in Hot Chilli, Australis Moisture Intense in Saigon, BYS Matte Lipstick in Tango, Nyx Soft Matte Lip cream in Amsterdam

This is a stunning orange-y red colour that I haven't really used too many times, until this recent look here although I did mix it with another colour.

This is a sheer,glossy blue-red that I'm sure intensifies with a lip liner underneath. I haven't really used this one either except in the first few pictures here but it is a nice day-time red.

The prettiest blue-based red! Definitely one I would recommend, you can see it here, also here but I think I must have added a warmer gloss on top.

 A nice warm toned matte lipstick. I wore it with a lipgloss over the top here

This is one I've put away and forgotten about after one little incident where let's say I had a few too many drinks and applied it almost all over my face =/ so I haven't used it in a FOTD but it's a gorgeous blue-based red.

Hopefully you can tell this lovely blue-based red is matte, I did use it in a FOTD but I didn't post it, damn lol. Which I might soon.

 Maybe it was because I was wearing a gloss underneath this anyway that it turned out super glossy looking, it has a little bit but not that much. And it definitely is moisturizing. Another nice blue-based lippy that when I bought I decided I didn't like it, but now that I have tried it again I will actually wear it!

Unfortunately it looks much warmer than what it actually is.. maybe it's my screen? But this usually looks like a really nice deep, blue-based red. And it is actually matte, why does nothing look matte on me on close up swatches!? Awesome long-wearing power, too. I've used it here (look at that matte bluey-red goodness), mainly here, along with Are You Red-Dy.

My faves out of the lot would have to be..
Nyx Eros, Maybelline Are You Red-Dy, BYS Tango & Nyx Amsterdam. Although I do like the other ones, these are the ones I go to.
If there was another red I'd really have to get, it'd be either MAC Russian Red or Ruby Woo but I'd have to try them on :)

What are your favourite red lipsticks?
x

Simple Glamourous Makeup // ft BhCosmetics//

Firstly, wow I have finally hit 300 followers! Thank you to all the new guys, plus of course the old ones :) I hope to host my first giveaway sometime in the near future so stay tuned for that! I just have to find some goodies now :)

 I loved Laurenbeautyy's Special Occasion Video using Bhcosmetic's Day & Night palette and it was a 'coincidence' that I bought it on sale a few days after, and then I though hey I can actually try it now! Mind you I had forgotten most of what she did in the tutorial so I just played along, trying to keep in mind something along the lines of her look.
So now I look back & it is very different, however mine wasn't intended for night time & I wore it to work during the day. (I did use the same colour on the lid & it came out entirely different :S) I still <3 it, though! I wasn't sure whether to name it a day or night look, this palette is confusing me, hehe.

 ~Products~
Photoready Foundation mixture with Avon liquid minerals (please keep in mind these pics were taken in front of a frosted bathroom window which automatically makes your skin look flawless)
Nude by Nature Eye Definer- Contour
Jordana Blush in A Touch Of Pink

Eyes-
Essence I<3 Stage Primer
Nyx JEP in Yoghurt
BhCosmetics Day & Night (didn't want to copy the whole pic but hope you can see where they are):

1: Lid 2: Crease 3: Blend Crease 4: Highlight 5:Inner corner ontop of 1.
 Maybelline Master Precise Liner
Ardell Demi Wispies

Lips: Nyx Long Lip Pencil in Plush Red
Maybelline Color Sensational in Are You Red-Dy
Random gloss in center of lip

I suppose because I didn't line my waterline in black & I didn't have heavier falsies that the lips don't make it look too overdone for night time, but you can definitely add drama, or take away the falsies for day time.

Thanks for looking
xx

Small Haul: Mac & Sportsgirl

On this weekend (2 weekends ago) we did the quickest roadtrip in history. 1400 km there & back in just over 24 hours to Perth! And that reason is... well, you will find out at the bottom of the post! But lets just say it will be the best thing for us for summer :D
So on this rush trip I was still able to get a bit of shopping in with my brothers' girl Kadie, we got to go to Garden City where I remembered they had MAC (again) so I had to buy a few things.

 Firstly I wanted Mineralize Skinfinish in Soft & Gentle but they had sold out :( The S.A was showing me some other loose powder highlights that were meant to have a wet finish but they looked a bit too glittery. So I settled on Lightscapade which is a beautiful, soft shimmery highlight. I still want to get soft & gentle eventually, although I think it will take me forever to use this baby up.

 Next I thought I would finally buy Paintery paintpot because I see so many people rave about it. I haven't properly experimented with it yet, unsure if I would prefer to use it on it's own or over a primer. It would be perfect for neutral, matte eyelooks. Don't think I could ever use this up, either!

 And from the start I knew I wanted a bright lipstick. I asked for Impassioned (been lemming this for a loong time!) but she said it was limited edition- say what?? Not sure I should believe that one! Maybe it is in Australia, I don't know. So then I asked for Vegas Volt, but changed it to Morange soon after because I had been wanting this for a long time as well. & I am so glad I got it- It is the perfect orange for summer! I also got Kadie to buy her first MAC product, Honeylust (I swore that was the name but it's only showing eyeshadow on google :S) lipstick which is perfect on her.

& I never intended to post this picture as I do not have anything at all on my face, but it's always nice to see a full-faced picture of the lipstick. I did not use any other lip products with it here.

So everybody knows makeup is more expensive over here, but I will share the total anyway.
These 3 products came to the cost of *drumroll* $118.00 0.o. Lightscapade being the most expensive at $47 holy moly I knew it was going to be a bit but I bit the bullet, although I believe that the total cost, if I were in the U.S, would be $62.50 so I had lost $55.50 but it is always nicer to go in store, you don't have to wait for shipping & worry about damages & I had good service so it was worth it-- sort of.
www.ozsale.com had a sale on MAC a couple of weeks ago although there was barely anything to choose from, I did purchase a couple of lipsticks & blush so hopefully that wont be too far away!

I also went to Sportsgirl because of Sleep & Water & Mishelle from Mishelle's sleepy time. I was going to buy a couple more lipsticks but I thought I had better not this time, although I wish I did now.

 I swear I saw a review on this from somebody, but can't remember who, so I had to buy The Scrub Up Body Exfoliator. It is vanilla-flavoured which is a scent I normally like, however it is almost over-bearing in this product. However I can easily look past the smell. This is quite a soft exfoliant so you may want to use a Salux Cloth with it, which is what I used the second time around.
You get a huge amount of product for only $9.95, the only downside is being in a tub I always get water in it while using it in the shower.

 I also bought the Pout About It! Lip colour in Fruit Tingle for a good price of $9.95. Although, when I got home I realized I had similar colours already. I haven't worn this properly yet but it is a good, muted orange-y matte colour. But now I wish I had bought something different instead, the bright pinks & reds look gorgeous. This looks quite neon, but I've seen it look muted on others so I think I will add a nude lipgloss over the top when I wear it.

Also when I got home I had realized that I have another lipstick from a different brand that had the same exact packaging, although the Sportsgirl one at least had a label you could see properly. The one on the right is in the colour Sunburst from the David Jones makeup line & I *think* it was $14.95 when I got it. I don't use it that much, though. The only label on it is a barcode sticker but it doesn't even say the brand so luckily I could remember it. The only real difference between the two is Sunburst is a tiny but darker.

L-R Sportsgirl Fruit Tingle, David Jones Sunburst.

So that's it for my latest haul, until I go back up to Perth in less than 2 weeks, where I hope to pick up a few products for a future giveaway :D

I did mention at the start of something else we bought up in Perth, so here it is!

 Our new baby, a Jetski!

& the first time I've ever driven one, trust me I was actually terrified lol


Thanks for looking! xx

Debriefed #9 – Michael H

Moving gold in/out/around Australia

The question of the need to declare movements of gold/silver in/out of Australia (as well on domestic flights) pops up frequently, most recently on silverstackers. I left the following comment to that forum thread below.

I think we need to distinguish between the security screening and customs functions (international flights only), which have different purposes.

Domestically there are no customs - something to do with the Australian Constitution i think :) So the screening is just for security reasons so I see no reasons why you can't carry as much as you want on a flight within Australia unless the security people think you are going to clobber someone over the head with your PMs.

There possibly is some thing for the security people about looking out for potential criminal activity but I suspect they are just trained to look for anything out of the ordinary, which would account for the request to check what those discs or blobs of metal are in your luggage.

For international flights/customs, there isn't anything in the Migration Act 1958 about gold. In Division 3.1 (Information to be given by arriving persons) of the Migration Regulations 1994 there is nothing about the interpretation of the wording on the passenger card, which says:

"AUD$10,000 or more in Australian or foreign currency equivalent? Note: If a customs or police officer asks, you must report travellers cheques, cheques, money orders or other bearer negotiable instruments of any amount."

Same wording on outgoing declaration:

"Are you taking out of Australia AUD$10,000 or more in Australian or foreign currency equivalent? If answered ‘Yes’ you must complete a Cross Border Movement – Physical Cash (AUD$10,000 or more) Report to present with this card. Note: If a customs or police officer asks, you must report travellers cheques, cheques, money orders or other bearer negotiable instruments of any amount."

The above requirements come from the AUSTRAC Act 2006, Section 53:

"53 Reports about movements of physical currency into or out of Australia
(1) A person commits an offence if:
(a) either:
(i) the person moves physical currency into Australia; or
(ii) the person moves physical currency out of Australia; and
(b) the total amount of the physical currency is not less than $10,000; and
(c) a report in respect of the movement has not been given in accordance with this section."

The definitions section in the AUSTRAC Act 2006 defines physical currency such:

"physical currency means the coin and printed money (whether of Australia or of a foreign country) that: (a) is designated as legal tender; and (b) circulates as, and is customarily used and accepted as, a medium of exchange in the country of issue."

would seem to exclude Perth Mint coins and bars as they don't circulate as money. That is, precious metals are not reportable at all, and face value has no bearing. To back up this view, see this interesting article by the Australian Institute of Criminology where the whole focus is on cash money laundering (includes great examples of how people try to smuggle cash and stats on the number of cash reports). I just don't think money laundering in/out of the country via bullion is a big risk that AUSTRAC are interested in - I mean, it is going to show up on the security scanners so can't actually be smuggled. See the AUSTRAC Typologies page where I can't find anything relating to gold.

FYI, note that moving cash in/out of the country is allowed, you just have to report it, see this Customs PR release:

"A 44-year-old Stirling man was detained for allegedly attempting to export over AUD$182,000 cash out of Australia via Perth International Airport. ... On his Outgoing Passenger Card the man had declared he was not taking over AUD$10,000 in cash out of Australia. ... There is no limit to the amount of currency you can bring in or out of Australia, however, under the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Act 2006 you must declare amounts of AUD$10,000 or more in Australian currency or foreign equivalent."

However, note that in the article it says that "Customs officers subsequently referred the matter to the Australian Federal Police (AFP) and the large amount of cash has been seized by AFP officers and investigations are continuing." While there is no law against such cash movements (just on not reporting it), keep in mind that the police can seize it if they think something dodgy is going on (proceeds of crime etc).

End result is, in my humble and non-legal advice opinion, while you don't need to report bullion, it will get picked up in the scanners and on the basis that such activity is not normal. Questions will be asked, so good to have proof of ownership so the AFP doesn't have cause to think it is proceeds of crime and want to "investigate" it further.

Bh Cosmetics Day & Night Palette + First FOTD with it!

I ordered the Day & Night platte from www.bhcosmetics.com as they were having a sale so I paid $10.50 for this bad boy! (not incl. shipping). You should follow their facebook page because they have so many great specials on all the time!
        I received it on Tuesday and I have been using it ever since.. there are so many gorgeous colour combos you can do, sometimes I even do the unthinkable & use the night colours during the day ;) I'm so bad! :P Infact I like to use most of the night colours all the time since they're so purdy but the light pinks will come in handy for the warmer weather.

 Using flash so you can see the gorgeous shimmers..

& in natural light so you can see the pigment naturally.

The are 30 day colours & 30 night colours with a mixture of mattes & shimmers. Also I think I have found a few Naked palette dupes so stay tuned for that post! (one day, be patient ;))
Some of the colours are highly pigmented, but some are unfortunately not. Over time I will post more looks with this so you can see.
This palette is so versatile, you can do many looks ranging from natural & barely-there, to smokey & ultra dramatic so I am really glad I bought this palette.

Wanting to use some of the most prettiest, pigmented colours out of the palette first, I created this peacock-y eye that was a little bit inspired by SMLx0 on "the tube" (lol if u get it)

ignore the 'big nose angle' lol but I like how glowy I look :)

And I just got an inch+ off my length! It feels like a huge difference in length lol but much more healthier! Even though I *still* had small split ends left after arrghh!

Products
Face: Nude by nature mineral foundation (which is what makes me look so tanned, lol)
Jordana blush in A Touch of Pink
Nude by Nature eye definer (contour)
Nyx White Pearl (highlight)

Eyes:
Nyx Milk JEP
Bh Cosmetics Day & Night:

 (main colours) 1- Lid.  2-Outer v & crease
Also a dark blue to blend lid colour however it got covered in the purple anyway so that's not true to colour on it's own.
Shimmery white to highlight.

Ardell Demi Wispies

Lips: MAC Hue & Nyx Sugarpie lipgloss

 Annd just 'coz I think it looks prettiest upside down!

 Thanks for looking, if you have this palette what are your fave combos to do?
xx