Counter to Ben Bernanke's The World on a Cross of Gold

Extract from Gold Standards and the Real Bills Doctrine in U.S. Monetary Policy by Richard Timberlake. The references to "Bernanke 1993" are to Ben Bernanke's 1993 article "The World on a Cross of Gold" in the Journal of Monetary Economics.

Ben Bernanke, in a laudatory review of Golden Fetters, agrees with its main thesis. “Eichengreen,” Bernanke states, “has made the case that the international gold standard, as reconstituted following World War I, played a central role in the initiation and propagation of the worldwide slump” (Bernanke 1993, 252). “In this masterful new book,” he notes approvingly, “Barry Eichengreen has gone well beyond his previous work to marshal a powerful indictment of the interwar gold standard, and of the political leaders and economic policy-makers who allowed themselves to be bound by golden fetters while the world economy collapsed.” The United States, especially, absorbed and sterilized gold, “largely reflecting conscious Federal Reserve policy. . . . Monetary policy became tight in the U.S. in 1928. . . . High returns on both bonds and stocks attracted gold into the U.S., but the Fed, intent on its domestic policy goals, sterilized the inflows” (Bernanke 1993, 253-258).

Bernanke’s words, much like Temin’s and Eichengreen’s, contradict his argument. If central banks could absorb and sterilize gold, “reflecting conscious Federal Reserve policy,” the central bank, not the gold standard, was running the show.

...

Bernanke finally poses a very apt question that he leaves unanswered. “Why was there such a sharp contrast between the stability of the gold standard regime of the classical, pre-World War I period and the extreme instability associated with the interwar gold standard?” (Bernanke 1993, 261).

Here are two commentaries that may help answer his question. The first is from Lionel D. Edie, a prominent economist of the time. At a conference of economists in early 1932, he stated,
The Federal Reserve Act cut the tie which binds the gold reserve directly to the credit [money] volume, and by so doing automatically cut off the basic function of the gold standard . . . in an essential respect we abandoned [the automatic money supply function] some time ago. . . . We are not now on the gold standard . . . and we have not been for some time . . . it is time to recognize that the Federal Reserve mechanism does not constitute an automatic self-corrective device for perpetuating a gold standard. (Edie1932, 119-128)

And Leland Yeager in 1966 described the “gold standard” of the 1920s in these words:
The gold standard of the late 1920s was hardly more than a façade. It involved extreme measures to economize on gold. . . . It involved the neutralization or offsetting of international influences on domestic money supplies, incomes, and prices. Gold standard methods of balance of payments equilibrium were largely destroyed and were not replaced by any alternative. . . . With both the price and income and the exchange-rate mechanisms of balance of payments adjustment out of operation, disequilibriums were accumulated or merely palliated, not continuously corrected. (Yeager 1966, 290)

These commentaries provide the answer to Bernanke: “The” interwar gold standard was not a gold standard. It was an entirely different system than the pre-1914 gold standard that had existed for 100 years.


Also quoted in the article is the following from Joseph Schumpeter's 1954 History of Economic Analysis:

An ‘automatic’ gold currency is part and parcel of a laissezfaire and free-trade economy. It links every nation’s money rates and price levels with the money-rates and price levels of all the other nations that are ‘on gold.’ It is extremely sensitive to government expenditure and even to attitudes or policies that do not involve expenditure directly, for example, to foreign policy, to certain policies of taxation, and, in general, to precisely all those policies that violate the principles of [classical] liberalism. This is the reason why gold is so unpopular now [1950] and also why it was so popular in a bourgeois era. It imposes restrictions upon governments or bureaucracies that are much more powerful than is parliamentary criticism. It is both the badge and the guarantee of bourgeois freedom—of freedom not simply of the bourgeois interest, but of freedom in the bourgeois sense. From this standpoint a man may quite rationally fight for it, even if fully convinced of the validity of all that has ever been urged against it on economic grounds. From the standpoint of etatisme and planning, a man may not less rationally condemn it, even if fully convinced of the validity of all that has ever been urged for it on economic grounds.

War, gold and American Express

Surfing around I found this excerpt from the history of American Express interesting:

During the summer of 1914, approximately 150,000 American tourists were stranded when war engulfed Europe, many without access to funds. Banks had ceased to pay against foreign letters of credit or any other form of foreign paper. Panic-stricken travelers lined up inside and outside the offices of American Express in whatever city they happened to be visiting. American Express was able to cash all travelers cheques and money orders in full, enabling quick passage home for thousands. Many of those remaining were able to book passage home soon after a decision by American Express and a consortium of nine U.S. banks to ship $10 million in gold to Europe so that local banks could once again honor foreign drafts.

During 1938 and 1939, as the prospect of another world war loomed over Europe, there was still a sizable group of longtime American Express managers and employees who had worked for the company 25 years before, during World War I. Their past experiences – and their advance planning, in this instance – helped the company survive World War II. Even before the official declaration of war, American Express had mounted extensive preparations to protect its financial and real estate assets, including its principal offices in Berlin, London, Paris, Rome and Rotterdam. Throughout Europe, American Express offices continued operating until the last possible moment in countries about to be invaded – often long after American embassies and consulates had been ordered to evacuate.


The history is interesting not for the reminder that in war fiat is worth nothing, but that AMEX had an organisational memory of WW1 that enabled them to prepare for WW2. The two events were close enough that those who had experienced the first were still employed and had not retired.

I think that what is necessary for an organisation (which is really just a collection of individuals) to see the need for "advance planning" is not experience of a crisis, but experience of the period prior to a crisis. Only then can one see similarities between the period that preceded a crisis and one's current situation and thereby identify the potential for a future crisis.

I also think that what is important is direct experience. One has to have personally experienced the pre-crisis environment - it makes for a strong imprint on the mind. Indirect experience is not the same. Reading the history of a period that draws parallels to now does not have as powerful a call to action. Words on a page can also be rationalised away.

For example, do you think giving Paul Mylchreast's 4th May Thunder Road Report history of the US and Sterling crises during the Johnson and Nixon administrations in the 1960s and 70s (pages 24 to 35) to someone in their 30s raising a young family will result in them buying gold? It is too distant and academic.

I would also argue that the minimum age for direct experience of economic/financial events to really register would be no younger than say 20 years old. This means that the youngest person to have experienced the 1970s and punishing inflation and a real gold bull market is now 60 years old. Anyone younger than that would probably not really "get it", at a visceral, emotional level that only direct experience can give.

My only "economic awareness" memory of the 70s would be my father suggesting I invest the $200 worth of Christmas and birthday money I had squirreled away up to my then 10th birthday into State Rail Authority of New South Wales bonds at 15% (my father was a train driver and they were offered to staff first). Getting a $30 cheque each year for 5 years seemed like a good deal. I remember being disappointed that I didn't hold out longer, because subsequent bond series peaked at 18%, if my memory is correct.

That is the extent of my experience of inflation, as a 40 year old. It makes me reflect on where I would be now if I had not made that fateful decision in 1994 to take a job with the Perth Mint. It is likely that my economic literacy would be negligible, my awareness of the potential for inflation and the role of gold as a wealth preserver in an investment portfolio, zero.

I am interested in what is your story. Why are you reading this blog? Is your interest in gold because of direct experience of the last gold boom, because someone close to you passed on their experiences, or because you are simply an inquiring mind? Please leave a comment.

New Perth Mint LBMA Bar Mark

The new Perth Mint bar mark as registered with the LBMA. Smaller bars will have the same swan mark but words around it in a circle. The bar pictured is a 400oz bar, 9960 being the purity (99.6%) and the year and bar number (see Good Delivery rules). Weight is specified on a bar listing as per LBMA rules page 9:

"It is strongly recommended that weights should not be stamped on Good Delivery bars. The reason for this is that when bars are weighed in London by an LBMA approved weigher their weights, which may be different, will prevail, and also any adjustment to the weight of a bar caused by future handling or sampling would necessitate alteration to the mark. If bars are so stamped, the unit of weight must be shown."



Below is picture of a bar stack for you to drool over.

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