Debriefed #10 – Motley Fool

Plenty of silver?

Two "insiders". First Adrian Ash of Bullion Vault on This Week in Money podcast (19:32 minute mark):

"Silver is a very interesting case at the moment, there is an awful lot of talk at the moment about silver supplies are very tight, London’s got no silver. I don’t know where this idea comes from - London liquidity in silver has never been so strong, you know there’s plenty of silver around in London right now."

Then Eric Sprott on King World News on his recent PSLV unit issue:

"It’s around nine million ounces. For the most part we will have purchased that already. I don’t know that we have all of the delivery yet because we just had the green shoe exercised on Thursday night. So that purchase has been made, but obviously we wouldn’t have delivery yet. I don’t think we’re going to have delivery problems. As you know, I’ve always hoped we can’t get that last bar (of silver) because we’ll publicize it. But so far the silver has come in."

Contrast with TF Metals Report:

"The commercial short position has grown so extreme AND the physical supply has grown so tight ... We KNOW that this silver manipulation cannot go on forever. In fact, the increasing physical supply tightness makes this eventuality a possible near-term event."

And Alasdair Macleod at GoldMoney:

"... the bullion banks which are short in the silver market are potentially in serious trouble, unless somewhere there is a pot of physical silver they can dip into. There isn’t ... There is no other identifiable source of silver, other perhaps than some producer supply, and there is anecdotal evidence that on every dip, cash silver migrates from West to East, confirmed by silver being constantly in backwardation."

Interesting difference of opinion. I'm not sure exactly how many weeks "near-term" equals, but surely no more than a few months at most? Look forward to the resolution, but while the future is uncertain, I can guarantee 100% that no one will say they were wrong.

BTW, I do not get why this claim that silver is in backwardation has been popping up recently. Backwardation is when a futures price is lower than spot (or lower than the current month). When I look at the silver futures contracts prices I see the futures prices rising from Jan 13 through to Sep 14 then sloping downwards, but only falling below Jan 13's price after the Dec 16 contract. It is an odd shaped curve, notwithstanding the illiquidity of the far months, but certainly not backwardation.

Basel 3 and gold

Sprott has a good article out on Basel 3 and gold. Two key quotes:

"It is our understanding that gold’s reference as a “zero percent risk-weighted asset” in the FDIC and BIS literature only applies to gold’s “credit risk” - which makes perfect sense given that gold isn’t anyone’s counterparty and cannot default in any way. Gold still has “market-risk” however, which stems from its price fluctuations, and this results in the bank having to set aside capital in order to hold it."

The "market-risk" aspect is what a lot of commentators who have been saying Basel 3 is great for gold have been missing. If you are not a bullion bank with gold assets already on your books, are you really going to choose gold over cash or bonds when gold is volatile and any fall could wipe out your equity (given their leverage).

I do however take Sprott's point that compared to cash and bonds, gold "provide[s] banks with an asset that actually has the chance to appreciate" and so may be able to compete for space on a bank's balance sheet.

"Basel III will also soon require the application of risk-weights to be applied to the LIQUIDITY profile of both the assets and liabilities held by the bank. ... Under the proposed LIQUIDITY component of Basel III, gold is currently labeled with a 50% liquidity “haircut”, which is the same haircut that is applied to equities and bonds. This implicitly assumes that gold cannot be easily converted into cash in a stressed period, which is exactly the opposite of what we observed during the crisis."

World Gold Council has been working on getting this down but at this time the gold market is still small compared to bonds and equities so at best will have potential only to be a marginal part of a bank's assets IMO.

Day To Night// Graphic Gold & Black // Ft Katy Perry lashes

I started out with this makeup during the day.... it isn't essentially a day time look but it was day enough for me :P We were in the city for Stereosonic (best day!!) but this was the day before were we got to go out to lunch & shopping with friends and we got to see our niece for the first time in ages! Sorry for the pic heavy post.
Day Makeup

I did my eyes at home but finished with my foundation in the car, I was trying out a sample of the Garnier BB Cream, but as I put it on I realized it was a medium colour & a bit too dark & orange looking for me, but I blended & blended & added everything else and the colour didn't turn out too bad in the end. Unfortunately I couldn't open the packet properly and some splattered onto my strap :@ so I tried to rub it off but got lipstick on it too and made it even worse!!! *DOH* I took out my hair and kinda twisted the strap to hide it. So annoying!

~Products~
Face: Garnier BB Cream in Medium (I actually liked it though, and the darker colour will be nice for summer, too, and I didn't need concealer except for undereyes!)
Nude by Nature Eye Definer- Contour
Christian Dior Far A Joues Pudre #849 Contour
MAC Lightscapade MSF
Australis Fresh & Flawless powder
Bourjois blush 34 Rose D'or
Eyes: Stila Kitten (inner lid) Urban Decay Naked 1 Palette: Half Baked (lid) Naked & Buck (crease) Creep (outer v into crease) Virgin (highlight)
Maybelline Master Precise Eyeliner, NP Set Liquid eyeliner (to intensify the black)
Lips: Milani Rosehip (although the pink doesn't look as bright here...)

Night
After this busy, exhausting day I didn't feel like completely starting my makeup over again but I wanted to dramat-ify it for a big night out (the random nights are the best!) I also *had* to use my Oh My! Katy Perry lashes by Eyelure.

 ~Products~
Face: Australis Paparazzi Perfect Foundation in Nude
Nude by Nature Eye Definer
Christian Dior Far A Joues Pudre #849 Contour
MAC Lightscapade MSF
MAC Dollymix 
Australis Fresh & Flawless powder
Eyes: BYS Black Gel Eyeliner (used a thin brush to draw in outer v & traced into crease, also lower lashline & waterline) Sleek Noir (black to set gel) UD Creep (blended under black) Naked (above black) Half Baked (touched up gold on lid, lower lashline)
Katy Perry Oh My! Falsies 
Lips: Mac Viva Glam Nicki

Mini Lash Review

These seriously are the thickest lashes ever. They are double banded so they feel really sturdy. I had to cut mine down to shape just a tiny bit, & as they were quite stiff they weren't the easiest to put on but I'm sure they will be easier to apply next time. They are probably a bit too overwhelming for my eyes, especially when they are open, but that wont stop me from wearing them again. I also didn't need to curl my lashes into them as I curled them beforehand & already had a heap of mascara on.

With my "mustached friend" hehe.

Also if you're wondering I got my top from www.allyfashion.com.au instore a couple of weeks ago, it is a lemon coloured peplum style top with a peak-a-boo back. Although I changed it for going out since it was stained! I wore it with black shorts during the day but I would have paired it with a black bandage skirt for night.

Thank you so much for looking! Take care xx